Zions Bank Small Business Index for Idaho
June 2009 Release
July 8, 2009

Written by Jeff Thredgold, President, Thredgold Economic Associates
Economic Consultant to Zions Bank

RECORD LOW SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES BENEFIT MOST OF IDAHO’S SMALL BUSINESSES

HIGHLIGHTS

• The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Idaho registered 72.5 in June 2009, up from a revised 71.6 in May 2009

• Idaho’s unemployment rate was estimated at 8.3% in the most recent month, up from the 7.8% rate of the prior month.  Idaho employment declined by an estimated 37,700 jobs during the past 12 months

• Short-term interest rates likely to remain at record lows will help Idaho’s small businesses to weather the ongoing economic storm 

• The U.S. economy lost an estimated 467,000 net jobs in June, worse than the 365,000 decline expected.  Job losses in April and May were revised to show 8,000 fewer positions eliminated.  The U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.5%

---

STEADY AT THE WHEEL

The Federal Reserve, this nation’s central bank, has undertaken a series of unprecedented steps during the past 24 months to address the U.S. and global recessions.  Many of these actions were nowhere to be found in an operating manual.

The Federal Reserve reduced its key short-term interest rate—the federal funds rate—to a record low target of 0.00% - 0.25% on December 16, 2008.  The rate has not changed since that time.  Most forecasts suggest that the Fed is likely to keep the rate at its current level for most, if not all, of 2009.

In addition, the Fed has provided massive liquidity, various loan guarantees, financial market supports, and other forms of monetary assistance in order to help stabilize the U.S. and global economies and help the U.S. economy return to positive economic growth.  The Fed refers to such actions as “quantitative easing.”

Most economic forecasters see a return to positive U.S economic growth no later than the end of the year.  The Fed’s own forecast sees a similar return to modest growth.  Greater attention is now being paid to the process whereby the Fed will reverse certain policies and reduce excess monetary accommodation as a means of minimizing potentially higher inflation pressures beyond 2010.  Financial markets refer to such policy reversals as an “exit strategy.”

The Small Business Index assumes that most small businesses are net borrowers.  As a result, they have benefited from extremely low short-term borrowing costs during 2009, although credit has been more difficult to obtain for many borrowers, both large and small.  Such low borrowing costs are likely to continue indefinitely.

In addition, performance of the U.S. economy is a component of the Small Business Index.  A return to positive, if modest, U.S. economic growth would be a positive contributor to the Index.   

IDAHO EMPLOYMENT

The Idaho unemployment rate—the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Idaho—was estimated at 8.3% in the most recent month, up from the 7.8% rate of the prior month.  The estimated 8.3% rate compares to the 3.8% rate of one year ago.  A higher Idaho unemployment rate is a positive for the Index as it implies greater labor availability for Idaho’s small businesses.

The Idaho jobless rate averaged 4.9% in 2008, 3.0% in both 2006 and 2007, 3.7% in 2005, and 4.9% during the period 2000-2004.  By comparison, the Idaho jobless rate averaged 5.5% during the 1990-99 period.

The latest 12-month decline in Idaho employment estimated at 37,700 jobs (down 5.7%) compares to a revised loss of 30,800 jobs in the prior year-over-year period.  Idaho lost 6,500 jobs during 2008, added an average of 22,300 jobs annually during 2005 to 2007, and gained an average of 7,100 jobs annually during the 2001-2004 period. 

These totals compare to gains averaging 17,600 net new jobs annually during the 1991-2000 period.  More recently, employment declines, leading to slower income creation and softer retail spending, have a negative impact upon Idaho’s small businesses…and therefore, the Index.

NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT

The U.S. Department of Labor reported a net loss of 467,000 jobs in June 2009, the 18th monthly decline in a row, and worse than the estimated loss near 365,000 jobs.  Previously reported job losses during April and May were revised to show the net loss of 8,000 fewer jobs.  The U.S. economy has now lost 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with more than half of the losses during the past six months alone.

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in June, the highest in 26 years, versus 9.4% in May.  The current 9.5% jobless rate compares to the 5.6% rate of one year ago.  The average hourly wage was unchanged at $18.53 hourly, a rise of 2.7% during the past 12 months.

Goods-producing employment continued to decline sharply in June, with a net loss of 223,000 jobs.  Manufacturing employment fell by 136,000 positions, while construction lost another 79,000 jobs. 

Service-providing employment also declined in June by 244,000 positions.  The professional & business services sector lost 118,000 jobs, while the retail trade sector lost 21,000 jobs in June.  The government sector lost 52,000 jobs, while the education & health services sector added 34,000 positions in June.

The net decline of nearly 3.1 million jobs during 2008 was the worst year since 1945.  The loss of nearly 3.4 million jobs during 2009’s first six months has already surpassed the 2008 total.  The net decline of 6.5 million jobs is a painful contrast to the average gain of 1.9 million net new jobs annually during 2005 to 2007.  Such job losses are likely to continue in coming months as the U.S. economy struggles with the worst recession in the post-WWII period.  Note, however, that most forecasters see the recession concluding before the end of the year, with a consensus view that slightly positive GDP could be achieved in the current quarter.

 

The July 2009 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Idaho will be released on August 12, 2009.

Jeff Thredgold
Thredgold Economic Associates
Economic Consultant to Zions Bank
(801)614-0403

©Copyright 2008 Thredgold Economic Associates